What is Kelly Criterion

Subjective probability aims to solve a big problem: how to calculate probability when none of the definitions examined in the previous chapters is applicable. The probability that it will rain tomorrow, that a newly graduated student will find a job, or that a basketball player will pass the basket record are examples of the subjective conception of probability, as they require neither the knowledge of the mechanism that regulates the phenomenon nor the repeatability of the phenomenon. The value attributed depends on the state of information of the person making the assessment. The already mentioned Bayes' Theorem shows how to make probability evaluations and subsequently modify them in the presence of new data. Faced with the vast field of application, there is a very scarce (one would have to say nothing) attention on the part of the teachers who prefer to concentrate the little time dedicated to the subject to more standardized situations.