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What is Bayesian Statistics

Handbook of Research on Integrating Computer Science and Computational Thinking in K-12 Education
A branch of statistics based on Bayes’ Rule, conceptualized 250 years ago by Reverend Thomas Bayes, formalized by Lavoisier, but only growing in acceptance over the past century. Bayesian models depart from traditional “frequentist” statistics in three ways. First, input data is expected to change as new information arrives (the posteriors become the new priors). Second, the outcome of a Bayesian analysis is not decisive, but rather is a probability or likelihood. Finally, the outcome is actually a distribution of probabilities, recognizing that there are several possible future outcomes differentiated by their likelihood. Bayesian models are extensively used in future-oriented AI and machine learning where they have great predictive value.
Published in Chapter:
Frameworks for Integration of Future-Oriented Computational Thinking in K-12 Schools
Scott R. Garrigan (Lehigh University, USA)
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-7998-1479-5.ch003
Abstract
Computational thinking (CT) K-12 curricula and professional development should prepare students for their future, but historically, such curricula have limited success. This chapter offers historical analogies and ways that CT curricula may have a stronger and more lasting impact. Two frameworks are central to the chapter's arguments. The first recalls Seymour Papert's original description of CT as a pedagogy with computing playing a formative role in young children's thinking; the computer was a tool to think with (1980, 1996). This “thinking development” framework emphasized child-centered, creative problem solving to foster deep engagement and understanding. Current CT seems to include creativity only tangentially. The second framework encompasses emergent machine learning and data concepts that will become pervasive. This chapter, more prescriptive than empirical, suggests ways that CT and requisite professional development could be more future-focused and more successful. It could be titled “Seymour Papert meets Machine Learning.”
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