Consists of F-enter and F-remove: 1) The use of F-value. A variable is entered into the model if its F-value is greater than the Entry value and is removed if the F-value is less than the Remove value. Entry must be greater than the removal one, and both values must be positive. To enter more variables into the model, its author is supposed to lower the Entry value. To remove more variables from the model, the Removal value must be increased. 2) The use of probability with F. A variable is entered into the model if the significance level of its F-value is less than the Entry value and is removed if the significance level is greater than the Removal value. Entry must be less than Removal, and both values must be positive. To enter more variables into the model, one should increase the Entry value. To remove more variables from the model, the Removal value must be lowered. At each step, the predictor with the largest F-enter, the value of which exceeds the entry criteria, is added to the model.
Published in Chapter:
Scoring Modeling in Estimating the Financial Condition of Russian Agro-Industrial Companies
Oleg Y. Patlasov (Omsk Regional Institute, Russia) and Olga K. Mzhelskaya (Omsk Humanitarian Academy, Russia)
Copyright: © 2019
|Pages: 25
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-5225-7760-7.ch008
Abstract
The chapter presents the authors' estimations according to the scoring modeling techniques; also, internationally spread models of bankruptcy forecasting are systematized. Advantages and disadvantages of dynamic modelling methods as applied to financial condition assessment are presented here. Methodological problems of financial modelling are explained here in detail. Regression, logit-regression, and discriminant models are built on the basis of data on the Rosselkhozbank and Sberbank of Russia regulations, taking into account the agrarian specifics of organizations and regional specificity of the Omsk region. An attempt has been made to balance the simplicity of calculations and the accuracy of predictions. Graphs, to be used for express analysis, are constructed on the basis of two core financial indicators.