Revolutionizing Malaria Prediction Using Digital Twins and Advanced Gradient Boosting Techniques

Revolutionizing Malaria Prediction Using Digital Twins and Advanced Gradient Boosting Techniques

Lasya Vedula, Kishor Kumar Reddy C., Ashritha Pilly, Srinath Doss
DOI: 10.4018/979-8-3693-5893-1.ch013
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Abstract

A persistent global health concern is malaria, a potentially fatal illness caused by Plasmodium parasites spread by Anopheles mosquitoes. The most severe instances are caused by Plasmodium falciparum, with common symptoms including fever, chills, headaches, and exhaustion. Machine learning has proven effective for forecasting malaria epidemics, particularly with sophisticated methods like gradient boosting. This study investigates the algorithm's effectiveness in predicting malaria prevalence using numerical datasets. The gradient boosting algorithm can reliably examine variables, including location, climate, and past incidence rates. With the use of numerical datasets, the gradient boosting technique produces remarkable results in 98.8% accuracy, 0.012 mean absolute error, and 0.10 root mean squared error for predicting the incidence of malaria. Gradient boosting demonstrates potential in tackling the worldwide health issue of malaria, confirming its accuracy and practical applicability for prompt epidemic responses.
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1. Introduction

The development of digital twins driven by sophisticated gradient boosting methods presents a glimpse of hope in the never-ending fight against malaria. Our method of anticipating and controlling malaria epidemics has changed dramatically as a result of these cutting-edge tools, which are powered by advanced machine learning algorithms. Through the creation of virtual versions of actual situations, digital twins provide proactive approaches to epidemic response and prevention. This offers unmatched insights into the dynamics of malaria transmission and facilitates more accurate and timely responses. This chapter explores the revolutionary potential of digital twins to change the way malaria is predicted and controlled (Wang, 2019).

A major worldwide health concern, malaria is a parasitic disease spread by Anopheles mosquito bites carrying Plasmodium parasites. High transmission rates, as those in sub-Saharan Africa, make the disease extremely tough to treat. The World Health Organization (WHO) and other governmental and non-governmental organizations have made great efforts to combat malaria, but the disease still has a significant negative impact on people's health and ability to make a living. This highlights the urgent need for novel and all-encompassing ways to fight malaria.

A multimodal strategy for prevention and control of malaria is necessary to lower the risk of the illness spreading and lessen its impact on impacted communities. In addition to providing access to timely and efficient treatment, indoor residual spraying, and bed nets treated with insecticides, this strategy also entails extensive community engagement and educational programs. In order to execute targeted treatments and increase awareness among at-risk communities, it is imperative to have a thorough understanding of the epidemiology of malaria, including its transmission methods and risk factors (Madhu, 2023).

Table 1 summarizes global malaria data (positive cases, deaths, and population) from 2001 to 2023. The table highlights the ongoing challenges and efforts in the global battle against malaria by displaying the differences in malaria incidence and mortality. The data is a vital resource for identifying trends and providing information for malaria prevention and control strategies.

Table 1.
Statistics about Malaria Globally from 1995-2022
YearPopulationPositive CasesDeaths
12001-2005650000002448000829200
22006-2010663000002402000742600
32011-2015676000002318000595200
42016-2020690000002326000599400
52021-202379800000211300583100

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