The objective of this study is to determine the suitability for the cultivation of emerging fruit crops in the Beira Baixa region. The suitability was examined for the present time and in the face of two future emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). For this purpose, the biophysical criteria determining the cultivation of pistachio tree and almond tree were processed using a G. The analysis was performed by the AHP. After dividing the problem into hierarchical levels of decision making, a pairwise comparison of criteria was performed to evaluate the weights of these criteria, based on a scale of importance. In the present conditions, about 16.4% of the study area is classified as highly suitable for almond tree and 15.9% to pistachio tree. For the future scenarios, the area with high suitability will increase both for almond tree and pistachio tree. The AHP was adequate in the evaluation of the emerging fruit tree species suitability, since it allowed the integration of the several criteria studied, being a useful tool, which allows the decision making and the resolution of problems.
TopIntroduction
The current trends indicate that are emerging a new consumers profile that are looking for an increase of variety, freshness and healthy options and they are also seeking a higher proportion of fresh and different produce in their eating choices (Campos & Madureira, 2019).
The concept of sustainability agriculture indicate that is necessary to promote the accountable use of resources, such water, and nutrients, and decreasing the use of pesticides in a way which considers the future needs and will not compromise the quality of the environment. Which indicates that is important to respect the agroclimatic conditions and identify and promote the appropriate adaptation strategies of the crops, especially in semiarid Mediterranean areas, where the water is the most limiting natural resource (Schaldach et al., 2021). According to the strategies of the Council of the Union on the European Innovation Partnership “Agricultural Productivity and Sustainability” (COM 2012), it is necessary to promote more sustainable use of natural resources and implement a competitive and sustainable production of food within a global compromise to reduce the impact on climate change.The climatic conditions in Beira Interior Region are characterized by low and erratic rainfall leading to water scarcity during the driest period of each year, and the high temperature during the summer period. However the by soil and climate conditions favorable to peach and cherry production (Simões et al., 2015), representing the crops with more public investment and expansion (Lopes, Alberto, Luz, & Simões, 2018). It is the most productive region of these fruits in Portugal represents 41% of the national area of peach production and 47% of the cherry production area (INE, 2021). However, in the last decade that region is seeking new patterns and configuration of agrarian landscape, through the foreign investments and benefiting from new irrigation infrastructures, expanded new areas of prunoids and introducing the new fruit crop especially almond tree and irrigated olive grove (INE, 2021).
The emerging crops that are identified in the aim of this study are the almond tree and the pistachio tree, that are distributed by different areas across the Beira Interior region (region that include Beira Baixa), that occupying around 3,800 ha (INE, 2021). In fact, the irrigation infrastructure availability made this region particularly attractive to the foreign investment that contribute to introduce new cultures and new patters of natural resources management, promoting rural innovation and showing the resilience of farmers. To these evidence joins other facts, especially the increase of market demand motivated with the health, gastronomic, and industrial properties that are linked to these fruits and their derivatives (Sottile et al., 2020).
So, these agricultural crops were selected due to their growing trend because the farmers be able to obtain more productivity by installing large-scale orchards in intensive and super-intensive mode, with higher productivity associated with the selection of varieties and greater availability of water for irrigation (Cabo, Matos & Bento, 2016).
Despite these advantages, there are associated some environmental risks that is important to prevent, especially that have been reported due to the installation of these cultures in an intensive and super-intensive mode (Malki et al., 2017). Those cultivation modes cause environmental problems as contamination of soil and water, reduction of biodiversity and soil degradation, among others, mainly derived from practices used and agrochemical products regularly used in treatments (Calatrava et al., 2021), further aggravated by the announced lack of water reserves (Sottile et al., 2020). Therefore, it is important to identify the areas with the suitability for these crops and create information to support the decision of future investments, as well prevent some consequences facing climate change scenarios and encouraging futures investments in sustainable production models and bet to native species not irrigated. This question is especially problematic if agriculture models are dependent of irrigated cultures at the expense of species adapted to local conditions.