Predictive Analytics for Heritage Site Visitor Patterns

Introduction

Visitor demands and tastes have changed due to the tourism industry's dynamic character and advancements in media communications, transportation, and technology. These days, travellers want more engaging and memorable travel experiences rather than the traditional, mass-market “sea, sun, and sand” vacations (OECD 2014;Timothy, 2011). The tourism sector has attempted to provide visitors with alternative or themed tourism experiences in response to visitor expectations (Stamboulis & Skayannis, 2003). One such type of travel that has gained appeal is heritage tourism, which is also referred to as cultural tourism (Richards & Wilson, 2006). The exodus of people to cultural attractions away from their usual residence to gather new knowledge and experiences to meet their cultural requirements is characterised as heritage tourism by Richards (2001). Due to changes in consumer tastes and inclinations, there is an increasing demand for heritage tourism as visitors look for more varied, engaging, and thought-provoking experiences (Timothy 2011). The demand from tourists for historical and cultural sites is significant; in 2007, as per UNWTO (2010)andOECD (2009), 40% of all travel worldwide was related to historical and cultural sites (Shore 2010). Heritage tourism is regarded as one of the tourist industry's fastest-growing segments and contributes significantly to the local and national economy.

Heritage sites, encompassing historical landmarks, cultural artefacts, and natural wonders, stand as windows to the past, preserving the rich tapestry of human history and heritage. For most heritage sites, visitor management is a significant concern (Petr, 2002). Globally, the number of visitors to historical places is rising (Gilmore, Carson, & Ascenção, 2007). Visitors now make up the most significant portion of the cultural audience (Gombault & Petr, 2007; Boniface & Fowler, 1993) and a highly targeted market (Huang, Tsaur, & Yang, 2012;Jimura, 2011;Yang, Lin, & Han, 2010) due to their growing attendance, particularly at foreign locations and events. Visitor studies are becoming increasingly important for everyone working in the tourism sector. Therefore, to better understand the unique expectations, attitudes, motives, and behaviours of visitors, both public and private administrators of cultural places and events seek to understand better (Laing et al., 2014;Calver & Page, 2013;Kolar & Zabkar, 2010;Chen & Chen, 2010;Bourgeon-Renault et al., 2006). Policymakers and regional directors of destination marketing organisations work to promote heritage tourism in light of their economic worth (Su & Lin, 2014;Choi et al., 2010;Ramsey & Everitt, 2008). In studies that specifically address visitors in the cultural domain, the tourism industry frequently highlights how tourists consume culture. There are two significant domains covered. According to the traditions of consumer behaviour, heritage and cultural practices are studied for reasons of satisfaction and to profile the distinctive features of heritage tourists in comparison to other tourists (Petr, 2015;Caton & Santos, 2007;Poria, Reichel, & Biran, 2006; Ryans & Higgins, 2006;Poria, Butler, & Airey, 2004;Chandler, 2004; Huh & Uysal, 2003; Chandler & Costello, 2002;Kerstetter et al., 2001). In contrast, professionals in the fields of hospitality management and destination research aim to ascertain how tourist attractions and events draw visitors to a particular location and how this aids in the destination's positioning in the global tourism market (Petr, 2015;Cuccia and Cellini, 2007;Flowers & Easterling, 2006;Quinn, 2006;Du Cros et al., 2005;Buckley, 2004;Colbert, 2003;Timothy & Boyd, 2003;Boyd, 2002; Hughes, 2001; Boniface & Fowler, 1993). While it is clear that visitors are essential to heritage sites, little is known about their microbehavioral patterns (Holmes et al., 2006; Hughes, 2001). For instance, many visitors only enjoy sightseeing rather than monument visiting, never setting foot on the central monument (Petr, 2009).