Mathematical Modeling of Economic Losses Caused by Forest Fire in Ukraine

Mathematical Modeling of Economic Losses Caused by Forest Fire in Ukraine

DOI: 10.4018/978-1-6684-8248-3.ch023
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Abstract

In this chapter, the authors analysed the current state of economic and environmental damage caused by forest fires in Ukraine. Uncontrolled spread of fire not only causes significant economic damage, but also has dire consequences for the ecology. The burning of large areas of forest leads to a radical change in the ecosystems of the affected region, which can eventually lead to unpredictable results. Thus, the negative indicators of forestry are: quantity of forest fires, units; area of forest lands covered by fires; losses caused by forest fires; burned and damaged the forest. It should be noted that the indicators of the consequences of forest fires do not mathematically correlate with the loss of wood cover in Ukraine, which are determined by the data remote sensing of the earth.
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Background

Solution any nature management problems, including forest lands, requires in-depth and comprehensive study. At the same time, any managerial, organizational decisions should be based on certain scientific forecasts on the consequences of nature management in the project, development of measures to prevent the impact of negative factors on the environment and improvement of approaches to economic planning taking into account the environmental factor.

Indeed, effective management of forest resources and prevention of the negative consequences of forest fires require an integrated approach based on scientific knowledge and careful planning. Effective fire prevention and management strategies, including early warning systems, improved firefighting technologies, and better land use planning, must be developed and implemented to protect the environment and minimize economic losses associated with wildfires (Openko et al., 2022).

At the same time, it is important to take a broader look at the management of forest resources, taking into account not only the economic benefits of forest use, but also the ecological and social value of these resources. This requires an integrated approach to forest management that takes into account the needs of local communities, the protection of biodiversity and other ecological values, and the long-term sustainability of forest ecosystems.

To achieve these goals, it is necessary to improve scientific knowledge and research in forest ecology and forest management, as well as to develop more effective partnerships between public institutions, the private sector and local communities.

Also, for the protection of forest lands requires a powerful material and technical base, taking into account modern advances in technology, in particular, Global Navigation Satellite System – technologies that allow you to record forests (areas) with high accuracy; large-scale introduction of technologies of waste-free (low-waste) production; increasing the volume of production of synthetic (artificial) substitutes for natural materials (Cai, Liu, Yang, and Di, 2012; Gensiruk, 1979; Vorobʹev, Mukhamedshyn, & Devyatkyn 1984).

The issue of studying the losses due to forest fires is the subject of a publication H. Cai, Zl. Liu, G. Yang, X. Di. (Cai, Liu, Yang, and Di, 2012). Scientists say that forest fire loss statistics is becoming a crucial tool in decision-making and in helping to reduce loss to life and property due to fires around the world. Estimating forest fire direct loss is important pieces of data when assessing fire at local and national levels. So far, the fire direct loss assessment work abroad has been greatly developed. And current forest fire direct loss assessment only stays in simple statistics and lacks the deep data intellectualized and analysis. Based on the current situation status of forest fire direct loss assessment, they divided the direct loss of forest fire into standing trees resource loss, commodity wood loss, fixed assets loss, current assets loss, forest by-product loss, agriculture and animal husbandry product loss, fire fighting expenses, personnel casualty loss, resident's property loss and made a quantitative and qualitative assessment of forest fire loss through the data of self-made forest fire case.

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