Long Term Modeling and Predictive Assessment of Climate Change of Ukraine Polesie Zone

Long Term Modeling and Predictive Assessment of Climate Change of Ukraine Polesie Zone

Petro Kovalenko, Nataliia Prykhodko, Vasyl Turcheniuk, Jerzy Jeznach
Copyright: © 2023 |Pages: 11
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-6684-8248-3.ch007
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Abstract

The analysis of current state of weather and climatic conditions and evaluation of their predicted changes for immediate and distant prospect in the drained areas of Ukrainian Polesie region was carried out. The main trends in changes of meteorological characteristics and their possible effect on the conditions of functioning water management and ameliorative objects; complexes also on the natural and ameliorative state of drained areas were identified. The research uses a method of predictive-simulation modeling with used predictive assessment models of normalized distribution of the basic meteorological characteristics in long-term and one-year vegetation context. It was established that, for today, a high variability in meteorological characteristics can lead to significant deterioration of operation conditions of water management and ameliorative objects and units, as well as natural and ameliorative conditions of drained lands. Core measures regarding the adaptive potential enhancement and development in the region under the conditions of climate change were examined.
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Methods And Models

To solve the task a large-scaled computer experiment on PC was planned and performed based on long-term retrospective and current observational data obtained in Polesie region (Mazhayskiy, Rokochinskiy, Volchek, et al., 2017; Rokochinskiy, 2010).

The following variants of study were planed and implemented for the average conditions of Western Polesie:

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    Variant 1 – «Base»: characterization of the meteorological characteristics over a period of vegetation (months IV-X), obtained on the base of long-term retrospective data (1891-1964) (Hydrometioizdat, 1990);

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    Variant 2 – «Transitional»: characterization of standardized average long-term values of the variables of basic meteorological characteristics and their distribution over the vegetation period, obtained under current conditions (1947-1990);

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    Variant 3 – «Recent»: characterization of the dynamics and standardized average long-term values of the variables of basic meteorological characteristics and their distribution over the vegetation period, obtained under recent conditions over the years of 1991-2017;

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    Variant 4a – «CCCM» and variant 4b – «UKMO»: characterization of standardized average long-term values of the variables of basic meteorological characteristics characteristics and their distribution over the vegetation period, obtained in view of current and predicted climate change, in accordance with the recommendations (Romashchenko, Sobko, Savchuk et al., 2003), by the models of Canadian Climate Center (CCCM) – as a more favourable forecast, and of the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) – as a less favourable forecast, which foresee an increase in average annual temperature up to 4° C and 6° C relatively – provided that the doubling CO2 in atmosphere occurs (Romashchenko, Sobko, Savchuk et al., 2003; Shevchuk, Trofimova, Trofimchuk, 2001).

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