Integrated Resource Planning for Efficient Power Supply in Nigeria by 2050: Future Scenario Approach

Introduction

The efficient supply of power is a major stimulant of socio-economic activities for improved productivity and development of nations. The major productive sectors of a nation’s economy depend on power supply from one or more sources of energy for efficient operation. The sources of power supply could be fossil fuels such as coal that facilitated mechanisation through steam engines which characterised the First Industrial Revolution of 1764-1840 (Onifade, 2020). In contemporary times, the major source of power supply is electricity which was developed during the Second Industrial Revolution (2IR) between 1870 and the early 1900s. In the 2IR era, electricity was mainly produced from fossil fuels such as coal and crude oil. In the Third Industrial Revolution (1969-1984), renewable sources of energy such as hydropower, solar and wind energies began to gain prominence. Contemporary power supply has also witnessed the incorporation of mini and micro grids to the conventional national grid systems. Consequently, Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) has been proven as a sustainable means of power supply for economic growth and development.

In Brazil, hydropower was the main source of power supply, providing about 8,930 Megawatts (MW) constituting 77 per cent of 11,600 MW of electricity to the national grid as at 2000 (Food and Agriculture Organisation, 2018). Low rainfall in 2001-2002 however led to power supply shortages thus impinging on the efficiency of power supply to industries with adverse effect on the country’s economy (Jardini et al., 2012). Consequently, the government conducted the 2003-2004 energy sector reforms based on Integrated Energy Options (IEO) (Griebenow, 2019). By 2016, Brazil had built about 290 power plants from 4 energy sources: gas, hydro, solar and nuclear sources. Consequently, power supply increased by 191 per cent, from 21,202MW in 2008 to 61,708MW in 2020 (BNamericas, 2020). The improvement in power supply facilitated industrial growth, particularly steel production that rose from 13 million tons to 422.8 million tons, representing an increment of 3,152 per cent, between 2009 and 2019 respectively. As a result, the country’s steel industry contributed about US$1.6 billion to the economy in 2019 (Fonseca, 2020). Thus, Integrated Resource Planning constituted a major enabler of improved industrialisation for economic growth in Brazil.

In 2010, South Africa formulated the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to diversify the electricity generation sources for its power supply system that was hitherto largely based on coal. Coal had constituted about 85 per cent of the country’s 45,700 MW capacity for power supply as at 2014 (Craig, 2018). Consequently, the country began to integrate renewable and other non-renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and nuclear power into its power supply system (Bakar, 2015). This initiative facilitated 27 per cent increase in the country’s electricity generation that rose from 2014 value to 58,095 MW in 2020 (USAID, 2021). The increment in electricity generation facilitated industrial sector growth, whose contribution to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased from US$102.4 billion to US$106.8 billion between 2010 and 2019. This represented an increase of 3.5 per cent within the mentioned period (The World Bank, 2020). Thus, IRP boosted industrialisation and the economy of South Africa.