Introduction: The General Geopolitical Situation in the South China Sea
The South China Sea is a site of geopolitical complexity and intensifying rivalries. These waters, which account for 12% of the world's fish catch, play a vital role in supporting the livelihoods of millions of people living in coastal countries. In addition, the region has significant untapped reserves of oil (about 11 billion barrels) and natural gas (about 5 trillion cubic meters). These resources contribute to the current wealth and potential economic growth of the coastal states (Katejon, 2021).
The South China Sea's strategic importance extends to international trade, with more than a third of global shipping traffic passing through its waters. It is a vital trade route connecting Asia's largest economies to markets in Europe, Africa, and the Americas, carrying more than $3 trillion in goods annually. Against this backdrop, the South China Sea is an arena of territorial claims and overlapping maritime jurisdictions (Katejon, 2021).
Historical difficulties in the South China Sea go back centuries. Regional players, including China (and separately Taiwan), the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei, are vying for sovereignty over various islands and reefs. Their rivalry has generated a complex web of disputes that combine historical interpretations, national egos, and tactical advantages.
In the context of complex relations between the countries, the recent episode of a Chinese coast guard ship firing a water cannon at a Philippine vessel in the disputed South China Sea was a worrying development. This incident is not an anomaly, but a reflection of the tension and unpredictability prevailing in the region. It also provides concrete evidence of links between the Chinese military and alleged maritime militias, and sheds light on China's strategic orientation and heightened risks in the maritime domain.
Below we will examine the specifics of this event, analyze its significance, and place it within the broader framework of regional security. The main thesis argues that the potential for limited military conflict in the South China Sea is more obvious than in the Taiwan dispute.
Assessing the Prospects for Hostility in the South China Sea
Historically, the South China Sea has been a hotbed of disagreement and antagonism. China's outspoken stance, fortifications on artificial islands, and extensive naval surveillance have sparked historic resentment from neighboring Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. The situation has prerequisites for both unintentional and intentional aggravation.
For regional players, the stakes are very high. Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines are concerned about maintaining territorial integrity and access to critical natural resources. The US supports the claims of some of China's neighbors, conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOP), and fulfills obligations under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines (which provides for mutual assistance in the event of attack by both sides).
Each of the following actions in the South China Sea could lead to limited military conflict:
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unintentional escalation – an unintentional collision between warships, as occurred in the recent incident, can lead to an unintentional escalation of the conflict if not properly managed;
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deliberate provocation – a deliberate gesture by one subject aimed at assessing the resolve of another can provoke retaliatory actions and escalation;
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legal and diplomatic impasse – failure to resolve disputes through legal and diplomatic means may lead to a hardening of positions and an increased tendency to use coercion;
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external intervention – the involvement of external forces can lead to increased tension and a change in the dynamics of the situation.
The tortuous geopolitical terrain of the South China Sea, intertwined with historical contradictions, territorial disputes, and the plans and interests of regional players, makes the prospect of a limited military confrontation alarming. All stakeholders need to engage in constructive dialogue, build trust, develop measures to contain conflicts, and comply with international law.