Forest Fire Danger Assessment Using Meteorological Trends: Case Study

Forest Fire Danger Assessment Using Meteorological Trends: Case Study

Nimazhap Bayarzhapovich Badmaev, Aleksandr Vladimirovich Bazarov, Roman Sergeevich Sychev
DOI: 10.4018/978-1-7998-1867-0.ch008
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Abstract

The chapter presents the results of research in the Republic of Buryatia, where the number and area of fires have increased over the past 20 years due to the rise in temperature and aridity. Most of the fires are registered in the large river valleys where pine forests are formed, which have low soil moisture capacity. Fewer fires occurred on the Eastern Sayans, Khamar-Daban ridges, and the Stanovoye Highlands, where the precipitation maximum falls. A correlation analysis was carried out between meteorological parameters and fires in climate-contrasting forests. The lack of precipitation at the end of the previous summer, combined with the hot and dry spring weather of the current year, have a significant impact on fires in the arid ecosystems of the Transbaikal middle mountains. In the humid coastal climate of the Eastern Baikal region, the high temperature of the air determines the fires, but there is no precipitation.
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Introduction

A forest fire is a spontaneous, uncontrolled spread of fire across forest areas. Fires have serious negative consequences not only for the biosphere and the ecology of the Earth, but also for human health (Teakles et al., 2017). They destroy forest (Wastl et al., 2013, Barbero, Abatzoglou, Larkin, Kolden, & Stocks, 2015, De Vicente & Crespo, 2012), burning a huge mass of organic matter, emit a significant amount of smoke (Yao et al, 2018), combustion gases (Adame et al., 2018) and aerosols (Zhao, Kooperman, Pritchard, Russell, & Somerville, 2014), thereby increasing the “greenhouse effect.” Besides the fact that fires adversely affect the biota covered, they can change the physicochemical characteristics of the soil (Kelly, Montgomery, & Reid, 2008) and cause significant economic damage (San-Miguel-Ayanz, Moreno, Camia, 2013).

The problem of forest fires has a global scale. The study of this problem has attracted the attention of scientists from Spain (Bedia, Herrera, & Gutierrez, 2014, De la Cueva, Quintana, & Canellas, 2012), Greece (Papadopoulos, Paschalidou, Kassomenos, & McGregor, 2013, Koutsias et al., 2013), Switzerland (Wastl, Schunk, Leuchner, Pezzatti, & Menzel, 2012), Portugal (Parente, Pereira, Amraoui, & Fischer, 2018), India (Kale et al., 2017), Bolivia (Heyer, Power, Field, & van Marle, 2018), South Africa (Strydom & Savage, 2017), USA and Canada (Feltman, Straka, Post, & Sperry, 2012, Shabbar, Skinner, & Flannigan, 2011, Girardin, 2010), Germany (Holsten, Dominic, Costa, & Kropp, 2013), South Korea (Won, S. Lee, M. Lee, & Ohga, 2010), China (Liu et al., 2016), of course, Russia (Zdereva, & Vinogradova, 2009) and others.

Recently, there has been a surge of extremely devastating fires with corresponding social upheavals and significant economic costs. Although most fires are anthropogenic in nature (Kale et al., 2017, Heyer et al., 2018), favorable conditions are necessary for ignition. The occurrence of fires most often falls on the warm period of the year. For a relevant fire danger assessment, data on temperature and relative air humidity (Matsoukis, Kamoutsis, & Chronopoulos, 2018), precipitation, dry days (Kale et al., 2017), heat waves (Parente et al, 2018), wind (Rolinski et al., 2016), and, in addition, soil drought (Zink et al., 2016) is necessary. A favorable combination of these parameters can provide forest dry fuel and necessary conditions for fire, often caused by lightning of dry thunderstorms (Liu et al., 2016) and anthropogenic impact (Guo et al., 2015).

Thus, the weather is the most volatile and the biggest driving force before the occurrence and spread of fires (Abatzoglou, & Kolden, 2013). The optimal conditions for fires are hot weather, dry fuel and sources of ignition (Moritz, Morais, Summerell, Carlson, & Doyle, 2005).

Key Terms in this Chapter

Baikal: Is the largest freshwater lake by volume in the world, containing 22–23% of the world's fresh surface water. With 23,615.39 km 3 of fresh water, it contains more water than the North American Great Lakes combined. With a maximum depth of 1,642 m, Baikal is the world's deepest lake. It is considered among the world's clearest lakes and is considered the world's oldest lake – at 25–30 million years. It is the seventh-largest lake in the world by surface area.

Arid Climate: A dry climate with high air temperatures, experiencing large daily fluctuations, and a small amount of precipitation (less than 100-150 mm / year) or their complete absence.

Arid: Specialized environment very dry and without enough rain for plants.

Temperature: A physical quantity expressing hot and cold. It is measured with a thermometer calibrated in one or more temperature scales. We use the Celsius scale (denoted °C).

Wildfire or Wildland Fire: An uncontrolled fire in an area of combustible vegetation occurring in rural areas.

Global Warming: A gradual increase in world temperatures caused by gases such as carbon dioxide that are collecting in the air around the earth and stopping heat escaping into space.

Precipitation: Any product of the condensation of atmospheric water vapor that falls under gravity. The main forms of precipitation include drizzle, rain, sleet, snow, graupel and hail.

Atmosphere and Soil Measurement Complex (ASMC): An autonomous automatic meteorological complex, which simultaneously with atmospheric weather measures soil moisture and temperature profiles.

Humid Climate: A type of climate in areas with excessive moisture, in which the amount of precipitation is more than can evaporate and seep into the soil.

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