Recognizing the substantial impact of external environmental factors on the tourism industry, obtaining insights into potential scenarios that the sector may encounter in the near future, particularly within a limited timeframe, is of utmost importance. The primary objective of this study was to envisage scenarios for the tourism sector over the next five years, striving for a comprehensive understanding of potential developments and challenges that could shape the industry's trajectory. Employing a two-phase qualitative methodology involving semi-structured interviews, the research first engaged with non-tourism experts and subsequently with tourism experts. Building on the identified key mid-term events—climate change and digital transformation—and employing a CATWOE framework analysis, two distinct scenarios for tourism development were crafted for the upcoming five years. This approach ensures a nuanced exploration of the influential factors and expert perspectives that contribute to the formulation of strategic insights for the industry's future.
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Considering the profound influence of external environmental factors on the tourism and hospitality (T&H) sector, gaining insights into potential scenarios the sector might confront in the near future, especially within a constrained timeframe, is paramount (Ha et al., 2022). In the ever-evolving landscape of the T&H sector, maintaining a proactive awareness of impending scenarios becomes imperative (Rodrigues et al., 2023), even more so when the reality of recent years showed how negative impacts on the T&H sector can easily suffer considering all kinds of worldwide events like the recent pandemic (Aldao et al., 2022) but also natural disasters, financial crisis or wars. As the sector remains susceptible to diverse influences, understanding and anticipating potential developments is essential for strategic planning and adaptability, ensuring stakeholders are well-prepared to handle the dynamic challenges that may arise in the rapidly changing tourism environment. This proactive approach serves as a cornerstone for resilience and agility in addressing the uncertainties inherent in the sector's external environment (e.g., Khosravi & Jha-Thakur, 2019; Postma & Yeoman, 2021; Schwarz et al., 2019).
This study set out to envision scenarios for the T&H sector over the next five years, aiming for a comprehensive grasp of potential developments and challenges that could steer the sector's course. It will focus on two of the more impactful events that can be considered external and not possibly influenced by the T&H managers' decisions (Climate change) and the internal that can be influenced and managed by the T&H managers (Digital transformation). Considering climate change, while it can bring new tourist destinations that before were not attractive, like warmer regions in northern countries, it can also destroy other locations due to regular and severe natural disasters, affecting the tourism demand (Scott, 2021). Considering the digital transformation, it will allow not only new management practices based on new technologies but also new ways of reaching tourists digitally, as a new way of showing the tourism offer more interactively, also to allow virtual experiences or reality-augmented experiences in all kinds of locations (Gupta & Sharma, 2021; Iranmanesh et al., 2022).
The study employed a two-phase qualitative methodology. Initially, insights were gathered from non-tourism experts through semi-structured interviews with thirteen specialists across various fields. A unanimous consensus surfaced through discussions with experts outside the tourism domain, emphasizing climate change and digital transformation as pivotal events anticipated for the next five years. Subsequently, the CATWOE analysis framework guided semi-structured interviews with stakeholders from the T&H sector. These interviews included destination managers, events organizations, tourist information, restaurants, travel agencies, tourist entertainment, and hospitality.
Two distinct scenarios emerged from these insights, offering valuable perspectives for both academic and professional spheres. Academically, the research enriches the theoretical understanding of how transformative forces impact the T&H sector, incorporating diverse expert viewpoints and employing the CATWOE framework for methodological depth. On a professional level, the scenarios provide practical insights for strategic planning and decision-making within the T&H sector, serving as a valuable tool for anticipating challenges, identifying opportunities, and fostering adaptability in the face of a dynamic landscape shaped by climate change and digital transformation.