Energy Diversification in Africa: Status and Implications for the Clean Energy Transition

1. Introduction

Following the launch of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement in 2015, there has been increased international calls for countries to diversify their energy mix, essentially by phasing out fossil fuels and replacing them with renewable energy sources. This transition requires balancing the need for renewables with economic growth and energy security, given that most economies around the globe are heavily driven by fossil fuels. Africa has experienced immense economic growth over the past two decades, and it is expected to witness more growth over the coming ones. For a sustainable future, significant efforts are required to ensure that the continent’s economic growth is driven by clean energy while advancing energy access and ensuring energy security. Energy diversification, especially through the development of renewable energy resources is an essential strategy and a precursor for decarbonization, clean energy transition, and energy security (Stirling, 2008). Countries and regions have set ambitious goals and targets to achieve this transition, with the European Union, for example aiming to achieve 32% of renewable energy in its energy mix by 2030 (De et al., 2019). Other advanced economies have set similar targets and are committing enormous resources towards this goal. Significant progress on improving energy access and transition has also been made in Africa; yet, its growing population and economic progress has sent energy demand soaring (IRENA, 2015).

Thus, there is an urgent need for a rapid increase in energy supply, to which all forms of energy must be included in production in the decades ahead. Africa is very rich with renewable energy sources. However, the continent still faces a reliance on gas, oil and traditional biomass. The African Union’s Agenda 2063 aims to achieve high standards of living, quality of life and well-being for all citizens in a peaceful and stable Africa as well as to foster economic expansion accompanied by the full achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 (IEA, 2019). It also aims to diversify energy resources, achieve full access to electricity and clean cooking and to reduce stigmatically premature deaths related to pollution (IEA, 2019). Electricity generation in Africa increased to 870 TWh in 2018 from 670 TWh in 2010 (IEA, 2019). Natural gas and coal (the latter largely in South Africa) accounted for 40% and 30% of generation output in 2018 respectively, while Hydropower accounted for a further 16% and oil for 9% (IEA, 2019).

Renewable power capacity increased from 28 GW in 2010 to almost 50 GW in 2018 (IEA, 2019). Hydropower is the largest source of renewable power by far and its capacity increased from 26 GW in 2010 to 35 GW in 2018, although its share in the overall generation mix has remained relatively constant at around 15% (IEA, 2019). Other renewable sources have started to develop but, for the moment, their share in generation and capacity is low. However, large regional variations occur in terms of the composition of the energy mix. There are also variations in the distribution of energy resources in the continent. Hence, various context-specific factors could influence the diversification and transition pathways of the different countries in the continent. With the urgency of the climate crisis, the need for diversification, particularly through the development of renewable energy is well-understood and currently features prominently in both countries, regional and global-level policies. However, studies on energy diversification in Africa are still limited and diversity has not been studied from a long-term comparative perspective, especially using concentration indicators that enable cross-country comparisons, in Africa (Akrofi, 2021).