Ecological, Political, and Social Impacts of Climate Change in the Large Water Basins of Central Asia

Introduction

Middle Asia is a term that defines a very large region including Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, North-West China, and Mongolia (Cowan, 2007; Lioubimtseva and Henebry, 2009) and is known as the Land of Turks. The water needs of the population within the borders of Central Asia are met by more than 6000 lakes of various sizes and rivers pouring into these lakes. Almost all of these lakes are closed basin lakes, and they are highly affected by the flows of the rivers feeding them. The largest lake basins in Central Asia are the Aral Sea and Lake Balkhash. The main rivers that carry water to these lakes are Amu Darya, Syr Darya and Ili Rivers, and these rivers are transboundary waters. (Figure 1).

Lake ecosystems, one of the most important components of the hydrological cycle, are highly sensitive ecologically. The ecological balance of lakes can easily be disturbed due to the effects of climate change, differentiation of the environment in the lake basin and human activities (Mason et al. 1994). The rivers in the lake basins are mostly fed by the snow and glaciers of high mountains and their flow rates are affected by climate change and human activities (Friedrich and Oberhänsli, 2004).

Before the rivers in Central Asia are poured into lakes, they are mostly used in energy production or in agricultural activities through dams. Expansion of agricultural lands brought more water consumption and caused less water inflow into lake ecosystems. Many Central Asian lakes (such as Aral Sea, Issyk-Kul, Ebinur Lake, Lake Urmia and Bosten) have shrunk and begun to dry since the 1960s, or some (such as Lop Nur and Manas) have dried up (Bai et al., 2011).

Figure 1.

Map showing surface water resources in Central Asia (Sehring and Giese 2011)

There are social, economic, and ecological influences of climatic extremes on the world (Luo et al., 2020). In Central Asia, climate change and accompanying drought, population increase, and the increasing water need, and unsuccessful water policies brought together ecological, political, and social problems. For example, water supply in Central Asia is mostly provided by the rivers Syr Darya, Amu Darya and Irtysh, which are the main rivers of the region. Because these rivers are transboundary, they have become the biggest political conflict between the states of the region since the collapse of the Soviet Union (Berndtsson and Tussupova, 2020). To take another example, glaciers in Central Asia play an important climatic role in holding water, controlling flows, and regulating the climate. Temperature increases in the region sharply increase the intensity and frequency of floods and mudflows, and subsequently, heavy household migration occurs in the region (Murakami, 2020).

In this study, the effects of climate change on the ecological structure of the major water basins in Central Asia are presented. In addition, the political problems created by the changes in the region on the plane of transboundary water resources were evaluated and their effects on social life, especially the population movements, were discussed in the cause-effect relationship.

Large Water Basins In Central Asia And Climate Change

The lakes in Central Asia are generally evaluated under 3 types. These can be classified as closed, open and alpine lakes. The large lakes in the region and their general characteristics are given in Table 1. Most of the lakes in Central Asia are closed types and are located within the Aral Sea basin, Irtysh and İli River basins (Bai et al., 2011). Alpine lakes are located on Tian Shan and Altai Mountains. The feeding of closed lakes is mostly through the melting of high mountain glaciers and snow, as well as rivers fed by precipitation or groundwater. Therefore, the existence of Central Asian lakes is highly affected by the climate change and drought.