This chapter introduces the adopted approach in modeling likelihood and impact of the risk of misinformation. The approach presented here is explored throughout the book and it serves as a foundation to all models developed further. This chapter introduces the variables and parameters in developing a probabilistic model regarding the risk of wrong purchase decision. It defines the parameters that need evaluation in a way to measure the risk of misinformation and proposes a way to collect data. In comparison with the initial model described in the first chapter, the properties of the parameters are extended substantially.
TopBasic Model
Assume that there is a set of Buyers B={bj}, j=1,2,…,N, where bj represents the jth buyer. There is also a set of products by D={di}, i=1,2,…,M, potentially suitable for accomplishing the set of Kj works, activities or tasks Aj={akj}, k=1,2,…,Kj, the buyer bj needs to do by using a product from the set D.
Let the Buyer bj (the indices could be avoided to simplify the formulae, when assuming a single customer or when using indices will not add to understand the meaning of given formula) needs to do a set of works and to find a suitable tool to accomplish them. To do this the customer has to be able to accomplish a set of k works, activities, or tasks, let us mark this set as A={ak}, by using a product d∈D. Some of these works may help in solving different problems needed by the customer as well.
For example, a customer b is looking for a PC to watch movies or to listen to music on-line. For both of those activities b needs Internet access, a sound system, and for watching movies b also needs a high-quality screen. Quality access to the Internet is common property to almost all activities b faces and wants to accomplish with the use of this PC. If b needs only to listen to music, she or he needs high quality sound system but may accept lower quality for the screen. Or to obtain a PC that will satisfy all needs of b, the PC must meet the highest requirements for quality to all the works related to all the problems that b wants to solve by using the product.
Subsequently, we will refer to this customer as a customer with set {A}. The elements {a} of A are assumed disjoined and are called works or activities.{A} = {ak, k=1,…,K},where K is a positive finite integer.
For the above example, the customer is looking to buy a PC. He wants to do word processing, to use the Internet, and many other works with this PC. Or the set {A} is {word processing, use of Internet, making calculations, listening to music, play games, etc.}.
Also, let assume that by applying certain methods, devices or services, the activity ak from {A} can be accomplished and the problem can be assessed as solved. We will call these methods, devices, or services products, which the Buyer needs to acquire or purchase. Moreover, there is a set of products D={di}, i=1,…,M, available on the market, appropriate for accomplishing the works faced by Buyer b or the set {A} of activities.