Prognostic Model for the Risk of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Using Fuzzy Logic Modeling

Prognostic Model for the Risk of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Using Fuzzy Logic Modeling

Florence Alaba Oladeji, Jeremiah Ademola Balogun, Temilade Aderounmu, Theresa Olubukola Omodunbi, Peter Adebayo Idowu
Copyright: © 2022 |Pages: 14
DOI: 10.4018/JITR.299378
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Abstract

This study formulated a model for assessing the risk of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on variables associated with the spread of COVID-19 infections. The study used the Mamdani fuzzy logic model based on a multiple input and single output (MISO) scheme which required 12 inputs and 1 output variable. Each of the input variables was identified using binary values, namely: No and Yes while the spread of COVID-19 was assessed using four nominal linguistic values. Two triangular membership functions were used to formulate each associated variable and four triangular membership functions to formulate the spread of COVID-19 using specific crisp intervals. The results of the study showed that 4096 rules were inferred from the possible combination of the binary linguistic values of the associated variables for the assessment of the spread of COVID-19. The study concluded that knowledge about variables associated with the spread of COVID-19 infection can be adopted for supporting decision-making which affects the assessment of the spread of COVID-19 by stakeholders.
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1. Introduction

Coronavirus is a member of the influenza virus family, which includes symptoms such as pneumonia, respiratory problems, fever, and lung infection in the victims. (Adhhikari, et al., 2020). Although it is known that these viruses are common among animals around the world, recent studies have shown that they also infect humans (Zhu, et al., 2020). According to Li et al. (2020), the World Health Organization (WHO) mentioned the type of coronavirus that affects the lower respiratory tract of patients with pneumonia in China, the new 2019 coronavirus. According to WHO (2020), the official name for the new 2019 coronavirus is coronavirus disease (COVID-19), while the reference is the severe acute respiratory syndrome of coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Common symptoms of COVID-19 include: fever, cough, shortness of breath, sputum, muscle pain, diarrhea, sore throat, loss of smell, and abdominal pain (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 2020a). The incubation period is the delay between the moment a person becomes infected with the virus and the moment the symptoms appear. For COVID-19, the incubation period is usually five to six days, but can vary from two to 14 days, but in 97.5% of people with symptoms develop within 11.5 days after infection (Lauer et al., 2020).

There are some people who are not infected but develop symptoms called asymptomatic, but their role in transmitting COVID-19 is unknown (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 2020b). However, preliminary evidence suggests that asymptomatic individuals contribute to the spread of COVID-19 (Bai, et al., 2020). COVID-19 is mainly distributed between people during close contact and through respiratory drops from cough and sneezing is faster when people are next to each other or traveling between areas (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2020c). According to Kucharsky et al. (2020), travel restrictions may affect the base number of reproductions from 2.35 to 1.05, which makes the epidemic more manageable. The first case of a new coronavirus for 2019 was reported by marketers in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, on December 29, 2019, when five patients suffered from acute respiratory distress syndrome after the death of one of the hospitalized patients (Lu, Stratton & Tang, 2020; Zhao, et al., 2020). Later, 41 registered patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection were identified by January 2, 2020, of which less than half had the underlying disease, including diabetes and hypertension.

After this event, it was noted that COVID-19 infection was largely spread due to the fact that many patients were infected in various places in the hospital by unidentified methods. Only patients who became ill were tested with the more suspected infected patients. On January 25, 2020, a total of 1975 cases with COVID-19 were confirmed in mainland China, with a total of 56 deaths, and by January 30, 2020, 7,734 cases were confirmed in China, with 90 other cases reported, including: Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Japan, Singapore, Republic of Korea, United Arab Emirates, United States (USA), Philippines, India, Australia, Canada, Finland, France and Germany (Nishiura, et al., 2020; Bassetti, Vena and Giacobbe, 2020). The first human-to-human transmission of COVID-19 was recorded in the United States, which also led to the description, identification, diagnosis, clinical course, and management of COVID-19 (Holshue et al., 2020). Also on January 30, 2020, WHO announced the coronavirus 2019/2020, a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) and pandemic March 11, 2020 (WHO, 2020b). The first case of COVID-19 in Nigeria occurred on February 27, 2020, when a citizen of Italy in Lagos had a positive result, and in the second case, in Ogun, a citizen of Nigeria working with an Italian came into contact. (Nigerian Center for Disease Control (NCDC), 2020; PM News, 2020). As of March 31, 2020, the total number of cases in Nigeria was 135 with 2 deaths and 8 collections.

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