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“Make America Great Again,” “MAGA2020,” and “America First.” These are just a few examples of popular slogans shared on Twitter. Due to the prevalence of social media, millions of people choose to express themselves via the virtual world. In addition, an increase in active mobile users means that more valuable information is being stored on social platforms.
A diverse group of users and a significant amount of information can be found on social media platforms. Therefore, many studies have investigated the real-world effect of social media content and information (table 1). For example, the integration of users’ comments on social media has a positive impact on moviegoers (Cheng & Yang, 2022), serving to forecast box-office revenues (Asur & Huberman, 2010). Microblogging content is a valid indicator of election results (Tumasjan et al., 2011). Additionally, media data from Twitter and Facebook can be used to predict a product’s future demand and improve supply chain performance (Iftikhar & Khan, 2020). The most common research uses content to predict the performance of stock markets. In fact, in recent years, research has burgeoned surrounding social media platforms and stock markets (Chen et al., 2021; Jin et al., 2022).
Table 1. While most studies have focused on the wisdom of the crowd (Bollen et al., 2011; Cheng & Yang, 2022), few have concentrated on individual perspectives (Ajjoub et al., 2020). There must be enough statements on social media to close the gap by examining one individual’s perspective. Thus, former United States President Donald Trump is an ideal candidate to study the impact of an individual’s continual postings on Twitter.
The slogans at the beginning of this section are, in fact, a common language used by Trump on Twitter. His words beyond the slogans also cause a stir around the world. In addition, after Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November 2016, the U.S. stock market underwent dramatic changes. In 2017, U.S. stock prices rose sharply while volatility hit historic lows. In 2018, U.S. stocks experienced severe turbulence and the country’s economic environment underwent significant change. Trump tweeted: The F-35 program and cost is out of control. Billions of dollars can and will be saved on military (and other) purchases after January 20th. This seemingly ordinary tweet on December 12, 2016, however, caused a sharp drop in the Dow Jones Aerospace and Defense Index due to the peculiarity of the tweeter, Donald Trump. Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank, said: This is a new type of risk that can be described as a Presidential Attack Risk. A similar situation occurred on October 2, 2020, when Trump tweeted that he and first lady, Melania Trump, had started to quarantine after testing positive for the new coronavirus. This communication from the controversial politician caused U.S. stock index futures to fall sharply. Among them, Dow Jones futures fell more than 1.7%. The Nasdaq and Standard and Poor’s also fell. This tweet also led to drops in European and Japanese stocks.