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Hydrocarbons, of course, are the crucial source of primary energy for industrial civilization as it now exists. However if we had abundant and affordable electric power from other sources, then civilization in some form and at some population level could continue indefinitely sans hydrocarbons.
Many industrialized nations are now growing rapidly and placing ever-greater demands on world resources. Many of those resources come from the presently underdeveloped countries. What will happen when the resource-supplying countries begin to withhold resources because they foresee the day when their own demand will require the available supplies? ... Will the developed nations stand by and let their economies decline while resources still exist in other parts of the world? Will a new era of international conflict grow out of pressures from resource shortage? (Allali. M, Tamali. M & Rahli.M, 2018)
Algeria is the leading natural gas producer in Africa, the second-largest natural gas supplier to Europe outside of the region, and is among the top three oil producers in Africa. Algeria became a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1969, shortly after it began oil production in 1958. Algeria's economy is heavily reliant on revenues generated from its hydrocarbon sector, which account for about 30% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), more than 95% of export earnings, and 60% of budget revenues, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
COVID-19 pandemic, which first occurred in China and turned into a global disaster spreading across the whole world, poses a great danger to African countries that do not have proper and robust health infrastructure. The outbreak which was seen in Algeria for the first time Africa, has spread almost to the whole continent in a very short time.
The energy sector, as a key enabler of modern life, is uniquely affected by this crisis but is also critical for global and national response and recovery efforts.
Energy security remains a major area of attention and the crisis highlights the critical value of electricity infrastructure and know-how, underpinning the response to the corona virus pandemic. It demonstrates the central role and importance of electricity, and what policy makers need to do in order to ensure that current and future systems remain reliable even as they are transformed by the rise of clean energy technologies.
We think the biggest question is how deep of an economic hit is the virus going to generate in major economies and when,” he said. “That is going to be a big part of what determines the pace and magnitude of the rebound in emissions.”
The Olduvai theory deals neither with the geology or the palaeontology of the Olduvai Gorge. Rather, the theory simply attempts to explain the historic world energy production (and use) and population data in terms of overshoot and collapse.
The Olduvai theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production and population. It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930–2030. After more than a century of strong growth energy production per capita peaked in 1979, The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline. Moreover, it says that energy production per capita will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilization a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years. This analysis predicts that the collapse will be strongly correlated with an ‘epidemic’ of permanent blackouts of high-voltage electric power networks worldwide. (Richard C. Ducan, 2005-2006),
The Olduvai Theory is a data-based schema that states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal 100 years. We shall develop the theory from its early roots in Greek philosophy down to respected scientists in the 20th century. This approach is useful because, although the theory is easy to understand, it is difficult (i.e. distressing) for most people to accept.
The Olduvai theory deals neither with the geology or the palaeontology of the Olduvai Gorge. Nor is it prescriptive. Rather, the theory simply attempts to explain the historic world energy production (and use) and population data in terms of overshoot and collapse.
No doubt that the peak and decline of Industrial Civilization, should it occur, will be due to a complex matrix of causes, such as overpopulation, the depletion of non-renewable resources, environmental damage, pollution, soil erosion, global warming, newly emerging viruses, and resource wars. That said, the Olduvai theory uses a single metric only, as defined by "White's Law." But now it comes with new twist (a will-o'-the-wisp) electricity.
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Figure 1. The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization