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In a random and uncertain world, leaders need to account for the high degree of uncertainty inherent in complex situations. Highly uncertain situations can challenge even the most experienced and skillful leaders (Khan et al., 2018). That’s why they need to reimagine not just their vision and purpose but adopt new ways of thinking that will allow them to thrive at a time of extraordinary change and disruption. Studies on how to reduce and minimize project uncertainty are prevalent in the project management literature (Browning, 2019; Wei et al., 2017). De Meyer, Pich and Loch (2002) identified four types of uncertainty and proposed different management styles and approaches for each type. In projects characterized by schedule or budget variation and foreseen uncertainty, project managers should focus on planning, whereas projects with high levels of unforeseen uncertainty and chaos require great emphasis on learning. Ward and Chapman (2003) modified and augmented project risk management processes to facilitate an uncertainty management perspective. Uncertainty-based management has also been proposed as a forward-thinking approach to managing projects that allows the vision to change, even in the middle of the project (De Meyer, Pich, & Loch, 2002). An uncertainty profile comprising four uncertainty types (variation, foreseen uncertainty, unforeseen uncertainty, and chaos) guides the project manager on how to move progressively from traditional to more adaptive project management approaches as project uncertainty grows (Loch et al, 2011).
Agile approaches to project management have also emerged as useful tools to manage projects characterized by complexity and uncertainty with responsiveness and adaptability (Fernandez & Fernandez, 2008; Moran, 2015). While most studies view uncertainty as a threat to project management, Kvalnes (2016) explores the positive dimensions of uncertainty by suggesting that uncertainty can power positive change on projects and activate positive personal and collective drama among project participants. As a result, uncertain events can either be harmful or beneficial to the project, depending on the project management approaches and the efficacy of the project manager (Perminova et al, 2007).
Managing projects under conditions of uncertainty requires a fundamental shift in how project leaders plan and execute initiatives. Instead of focusing on the process they need to focus on the project’s outcome by balancing structure and governance with the need to flex and pivot on demand (PMI, 2021). The role of the project manager is key to move from crisis prone to crisis prepared and requires great leadership skill and flexibility (Silva & Pejic-Back, 2019). Adoption of critical leadership competencies by the project manager improves the probability of project success and helps to mitigate project risks (Ahmed & Philbin, 2020). Some of the most critical leadership competencies for project managers include communication, developing/growth, achieving, critical analysis, empowering, managing resources, and organizational/strategic planning (Ahmed & Philbin, 2020; Al Nahyan et al., 2019; Cripe & Burleigh, 2022).